Television networks traditionally schedule programs on a 40-week ratings year. That year begins in February and ends in November, with a small break over the Easter period.
It was made this way as traditionally people don’t watch much television during summer. It’s also the reason the networks have always spent a lot of money securing summer sports – such as cricket or tennis – which provide an audience uplift ahead of the “official” ratings year.
But this has changed over time. Networks now think about a 52-week year. For consistency, this article will reflect a 52-week year.
Total people
The most simple way to measure who is winning the year is to base it on the total number of people watching a network.
This can be done by measuring the percentage of people watching one network – or channel – over another. Seven is currently the number one network and says it will remain so based on data from the survey and calendar year.
While Seven started off the year slow with sluggish ratings for Holey Moley and Ultimate Tag, it made up some ground with programs like The Voice, Farmer Wants a Wife and the AFL. It also broke ratings records during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games (more than 2.2 million watched Australian Peter Bol compete for an Olympic medal in the 800m final), which was buoyed by prolonged lockdowns in NSW and Victoria.
Being number one in total people is important to Seven West Media CEO James Warburton because the network had lost the crown for the first time in 12 years when he arrived in 2019. It is also important for publicity – it allows Seven to use words like ‘we’re number one’ to market the network to viewers.
“Being number one matters,” James Warburton, CEO of Seven West Media, says. “Confidence, belief, leadership in the market – there’s a whole range of things that make it matter.
“The other reason it matters is because of revenue. Every revenue share point is $21 million dollars.”
Seven is criticised for using the metrics mentioned above because other television networks do not count ratings generated from one-off events – including the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.
Nine’s chief sales officer Michael Stephenson said this is because it does not allow for a fair year-on-year comparison.
“It’s the reason why – forever – one off events have always been excluded from analysis. It is important you have an apples for apples comparison. The Summer Olympics didn’t happen last year, and won’t happen next year,” he says.
Based on data for the calendar year to date, Seven currently has 40.1 per cent of the total viewing audience in the five capital cities. Nine has a 26.3 per cent share while Ten has a 23.6 per cent share of the audience.
But it’s a closer battle when the Olympics are excluded. Seven leads on a 38.1 per cent share, ahead of Nine’s 37.5 per cent share of audience. Ten’s programs such as Masterchef Australia, The Bachelor and The Masked Singer, which have struggled to attract large audiences, have given it a 24.4 per cent share for the year so far.
What’s the most important way to judge success?
Becoming the network that has the most amount of total viewers may give it boasting rights, but that figure doesn’t really matter to advertisers.
Advertisers buy slots on television based on specific demographics, because they are looking to target a particular group of people. When a television program caters to a specific demographic, it can be more suitable for an advertiser than a high-rating program.
The three that are most commonly used by advertisers are the 16-39, the “grocery shopper and child” and the 25-54 segments in the five metropolitan capital cities. The 25-54 demographic is arguably most important because it includes the people most likely to spend money.
“[Total people] is such an old-fashioned way to think of things,” Mr Stephenson says. “At the end of day, advertisers have a lot of different options. They want to know who the leader is, and who the best partner is. Part of that is being able to deliver the biggest audiences in the demographics they care about.
“For as long as I have been doing this, I’ve never received a brief for total people.”
Nine’s other gripe is that Seven has a lot of viewers who are older than 65, which will give it the numbers to win total people.
Based on the calendar year data including the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, Seven Network is the most popular among the 25-54, 16-39 and the “grocery shopper with child” segment. Seven has a 36.2 per cent share of the 25-54 demographic, compared to Nine’s 35.8 per cent. It has a 37.3 per cent share of the 16-39 audience, compared to Nine’s 33.7 per cent. But Nine thinks this is unfair.
If the Olympics is excluded, then Nine Network is leading in the 25-54s on a 37.2 per cent share, as well as the 16-39s and grocery shopper with child.
Network Ten does not have the audience scale of Nine and Seven. And its programs like The Bachelor, Australian Survivor and Masterchef Australia struggle to compete against programs on other channels.
“We’re happy with the performance, we’ve had lots of really great results,” 10 ViacomCBS co-lead Beverley McGarvey says. “We’re confident that we are going to have a really good run home.”
The performance made be good by Ten’s standards, but their biggest show currently on air, The Bachelorette, has had its worst premiere audience in history. The network has also suffered falls in audiences from programs including Masterchef Australia, The Masked Singer and The Bachelor, despite these programs running during peak lockdowns in NSW and Victoria.
For its part, the network does not try to compete on total viewers and instead markets itself as the broadcaster for the ‘under 50s’. It says of the total proportion of people watching across the ViacomCBS stable, which also runs Nickelodeon and MTV, a large number are under 50 years old. But its rivals have said the network is misleading and have publicly criticised Ten for marketing itself as such. Ten says that 81 per cent of all advertising campaigns served on its network are targeted at audiences under 55.
“Ten are stuffed,” Seven’s Mr Warburton, who previously ran Ten, says. “They are a streaming company now. The fact they didn’t ever bother to attempt to bid for the NRL shows exactly where their priorities are.”
“10 ViacomCBS continues to make very significant investments in all content across all our platforms. Our balance sheet allows us to take advantage of short-term tactical opportunities whilst maintaining a long-term vision,” a Ten spokesperson said. “While we are disappointed to hear senior industry leaders speak about our business in a disrespectful manner, we wish all our competitors well.”
What about ratings for apps and smart TV?
As people began watching TV through the internet, the networks developed applications to broadcast their programs online. These are known as 10Play, 7Plus and 9Now.
Smart TV devices have transformed the way some people watch television. But until recently, it has been hard to track the viewers that are live-streaming television through the internet. This has been a problem when programs such as Nine’s Love Island, which attract big audiences online (Love Island’s audience increases from 171,000 metropolitan viewers on linear to 542,000). Tracking the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which broke streaming records with 46 billion minutes watched during the games, would’ve also been difficult historically.
The networks have recently developed a total TV report – known as Virtual Oz – which can give them a better indication of where their audience is and who watches TV online.
When considering live-streaming and catch-up viewing, and excluding the Olympics, 9Now is the dominant player on a 46.1 per cent share, ahead of 7Plus and 10Play.
Seven becomes the leader when including the Olympics, because of the record-breaking amount of live-streaming minutes. 7Plus has a 46.6 percent share, ahead of 9Now on 39.9 percent and 10Play on 13.5 percent for the calendar year based on these metrics.
Where does that leave us?
Nine and Seven both have good stories to tell, depending on how the figures are cut. But at the end of the day the television ratings only matter if they translate into the most amount of revenue possible.
There is no doubt Seven has improved its ratings since the arrival of Mr Warburton, and that will give it a way to position itself as the leading network next year. It will be a tight race to secure a win among the key advertising demographics, but Nine is confident it will win for the fifth year in a row.
What is certain is that there is no major one-off events next year. The Winter Olympics are unlikely to gain the traction that the Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games, and the networks will also be without the benefit that they have gained from prolonged COVID-19 related lockdowns.
This will level the playing field. But you can be sure that it won’t make the battle any easier.
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